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Economic Blog - Unemployment Rate Falls

December 4, 2009 - Economic Blog
Today we have some surprisingly good numbers on the economy. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% to 10%. Most economists were looking for it to stay at 10.2%, and even the
White House came out with an uncharacteristic comment yesterday, expecting a rise in the rate. Instead of pontificating on the White House's inability to get anything right, I'll refrain
and stick to economics.
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Future Inflation - How to Make Your best Investment Now

With the economy just coming out of a deep and scary recession, now is a great time to look ahead and anticipate the next phase. The government has obviously been
spending a great deal of money in order to thwart a deeper recession by borrowing, i.e. printing money. When the government does this, the inevitable outcome is that
inflation rises. It may not happen for a year or a few, but it is inevitable.

So, what should an investor do in order to maximize profits during an inflationary period? Stocks are usually a good bet, but in this economy, the stock market ran ahead of
other markets in 2009, so one would not be buying a relatively cheap market. Bonds are not a great idea, as inflation raises interest rates, which simultaneously depresses
bond prices. In other words, if you own bonds and rates rise, the value of your bonds falls.

My idea is to invest in an underappreciated asset that will rise as inflation rises: real estate. As everyone knows, real estate prices are low. They have been low for a little
while now, so why is now the time to buy? I look at it like the perfect storm. Real estate prices are low, interest (borrowing) rates are low, and inflation is looming. If you
are looking to buy real estate as a medium term investment (3-5 years), I think that now is a great time to invest. You can buy cheap assets with low borrowing costs, with
the knowledge that inflation will soon raise both housing prices and interest rates. If I was buying, I would also try very hard to get an assumable loan, so that when
inflation hits in the future and you want to sell, you can offer your buyer a low interest rate loan as further enticement.

One important thing is to buy real estate correctly. There are some great opportunities available all over the country, including the Crested Butte, CO area. From ski condos
to luxury single family homes, some sellers are eager to sell their properties and these properties can be had for bargain prices. Now is the time to ride that perfect storm
and make an investment that will pay off well in a few years time.

(Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent at Red Lady Realty in Crested Butte, CO)
Diane Aronovic
970-209-0405
Crested Butte        
 Realty     
diane@cb-realty.com
I've been thinking a lot about the currency markets these days. With Greece attempting to wreak havoc on the Euro, and bring down the entire EU, and the UK
potentially giving Gordon Brown the boot, what is a savvy investor to do? My viewpoint is to take advantage of the turmoil and invest in the US, especially in real
estate. Uncertainty breeds opportunity so why not make some money?

For the European investor, facing a devaluation of one's currency makes one want to move money into other currencies, quickly. So why not invest in the US? the stock
markets are already up, the bonds are likely going down as rates rise, but real estate is still at relative low valuations. If one takes a 3-5 year approach, one can get a
double whammy of a trade, buying cheap real estate that will likely rise, and then repatriating money into the Euro (if it's still around) at lower levels.

Give me a call if you agree and want to park some overseas monies into doubly cheap Crested Butte, Colorado real estate.

(Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent at Red Lady Realty in Crested Butte, CO)
Stock Market Correction and its Impact on Real Estate  
Thursday, 20 May 2010 11:44  
As I have been noting for the past few months, real estate looks like a great investment currently. Interest rates are low, making it less interesting to invest in bonds than to
borrow at these rates (i.e. mortgages). The stock market has undergone a terrific appreciation from the lows, but the economy will need to show much more impressive signs of
strength in order for the Dow to rise past 11,000 or the S&P to surpass 1200-1250. I am glad not to have exposure in any other currencies besides the US $ (though I would make
an exception for the Canadian $ despite its being referred to as the Loonie).
(continued)
Open publication - Free publishing - More red lady
The first question on many people's minds when they initially realize that a market is going down is, "where is the bottom?" People have been asking that about the stock market
and the real estate market for a couple of years now. Chartists pontificate about various chart shapes and how they are the predictors of future trends. Is the recession going to be
U-shaped, V-shaped or W-shaped?
The truth of the matter is that no one knows for sure and won't know until way after the fact. The duration and depth of any market tumble or recession  can't be known until we are
in the next phase. Currently there is a great deal of discussion about defining the present economy and markets and many people are calling a bottom, middle, end, or calling for a
crash or rally.

The proper way to evaluate your timing in any market takes into account many other factors. Personal factors about cash flow and savings, job security and risk tolerance. If you are
looking for a mortgage, rates and availability of loans for the specific type of loan you seek.

So my point is, when someone claims it's the market bottom, the reality is, they are guessing unless they have a time machine. A more important question is, "Is this a good time
for me to buy?" I think anytime in the next couple of years will be a good time to buy real estate, if it is a good time for you. Low interest rates and low house prices create an
opportunity and if you have been considering a real estate purchase for the past couple of years, this is a good time. Will there be a better time in the future? Maybe, maybe not.
Interest rates and relatively low prices are starting to
attract buyers, but there is also good supply available. My feeling is that now is a good time to look, and if you find the right property at the right price, it's a good time to buy. If you
can't find what you are looking for, you will probably have the opportunity to continue shopping for at least a short while until you do.

But try to avoid trying to buy at "the bottom." It's not a good use of time worrying about whether you captured the absolute best price or not, especially in real estate. Currently, there
is enough desperation from sellers that great prices are currently negotiable and the rule of thumb I use is that if you are within 10% of the low price, you have done pretty well.
Also, unlike the stock market, you can't pinpoint a specific time or price at which the real estate market "bottoms." If it works for you and feels like a good time, now is a good a time
as any, and one thing I will guarantee is that it is not the top.
(Crested Butte real estate agent Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent at Red Lady Realty in Crested Butte,
CO)
Diane's Blog - July 9, 2009
Coyotes, Foxes and Bears

Living in bear country makes for interesting times. Although I live in Crested Butte town proper, I get lots of not always welcome wildlife visitors. In the past week alone, my
backyard has been host to a fox, a coyote that had just caught another creature and a bear. And those are just the ones I happened to personally see in the daylight. Having
close encounters with large, potentially dangerous creatures is both thrilling and frightening, usually simultaneously. If you have children it opens your eyes to dangers beyond
those you might be prepared for, and you are always resigned to the fact that your dog or cat's temporary disappearance may actually be a permanent one.

But the upside to living amongst wildlife is the great experiences you have that city dwellers miss out on. Watching a coyote catch and eat his lunch, while not for the
squeamish, is a great insight into how these critters live. Yesterday a bear came into my fenced yard. I watched him wander about, check everything out, and climb a tree
before making a graceful escape into my neighbor's yard. I can't even see that at the zoo.

So although there are hidden dangers (mostly to house pets pulling an all-nighter) for the most part living amongst wildlife is a potentially exciting and interesting experience.
And as a former city dweller, I get a kick out of the different kinds of danger we face in a mountain town. I also like that there is no need to lock your door here to keep out
people danger, but in lieu of having nocturnal, hungry wildlife raiding your fridge, a handy lock goes a long way.
fax (970) 349-5463
2011 Crested Butte Calendar
This being election day, I think it's a really good time to talk about change. Not "Change We Can Believe in" which was President Obama's campaign slogan, but change
as in doing things differently and for the better. We have gotten ourselves into a situation whereby true change of our governmental system is something people seem
to be quite afraid of. At this point, why? Why do we fear change when our current system is broken and does not seem to be making anyone happy, except those who
are benefitting from the system. Those people would be those in elected office, who can happily change the health care system since they have the best coverage of
anyone and will not be footing the bill. Others who benefit are lobbyists, whom we have allowed to become a highly paid force representing special interests who hold
way too much sway in policy.

Thinking about change in our financial system, the biggest change we can have is opening up the floodgates of lending. Employment and the housing market's strength
are intertwined, especially in our current situation. Our economy is not going to improve until we stabilize the housing market. The housing market isn't going to
stabilize or improve until buyers can get loans. We espeicially see the correlation between the housing market and jobs in Crested Butte, CO since we are a resort
community. Besides the ski resort, most jobs here are in the housing market, from real estate agents like me to builders, lenders, decorators, etc. If the housing market
here isn't healthy, taxes are greatly reduced which reduces services, restaurants are less busy effecting owners and employees and the shops are underutilized
causing those owners and employers to suffer.

What then is the change that we need? We need lenders to modify loans to keep homeowners in their homes and decrease the number of vacant homes due to
foreclosures. We need a new group of lenders to see that there is an opportunity to make money doing real estate loans at current rates. One might think that with
historically low long term rates lending cannot be profitable. However, short term rates are even lower so there is room for a profit (banks take in deposits at 1% and
lend at 4%). Locking in 3% (300 basis points) is a beautiful transaction for someone like me who is more accustomed to making 3 basis points on a transaction (in
trading, not real estate).

Instead of government trying to change things like health care and the financial industry, they should be focused on changing things that matter and can stimulate the
economy. Lenders need to lend so people like me can help people purchase the properties they want, then we can all spend money on taxes, restaurants and stores so
our country becomes a superpower once again.

(
Crested Butte real estate agent Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent at Red Lady Realty in Crested
Butte, CO)
Own vs. Rent

I saw a blurb today from a financial analyst saying that even the rich are turning to rentals now. I thought this was interesting for a few reasons. It does make a great deal of
sense for people, including the wealthy, to rent vacation homes rather than purchasing. A vacation home is usually in a location far removed from one's home. Maintaining
such a property brings its own set of challenges, from unpredictable weather (whether in the mountains or at the beach), to structural, electric and plumbing issues that
may occur in one's absence.

I have always thought that renting a vacation home rather than purchasing was a necessary consideration. The hassles of primary home ownership are magnified in a vacation
home, mostly due to its location. The one upside consideration that is a game changer is price appreciation. I think that certainly with real estate values down considerably
in the last few years, there is a strong case to be made for vacation home ownership. Fortunately, in Crested Butte we are also well equipped to handle property
management for second home owners: it comes with the territory in a resort community.

One interesting piece of the puzzle here in Crested Butte is the strength of our short term rental market. In the past few years, our resort has strengthened its position as a
summer vacation spot. In fact, summer visits outpace and outearn winter visits in our town. Every local knows the old adage that they originally came here for the winters,
but stayed for the summers. People who have been here in the summer know the truth in that statement. It does create an interesting investment opportunity though, with
certain areas getting revenues that are multiples of revenues in other areas in the short term rental market.

I believe that the wealthy turning to renting as opposed to buying will only strengthen the rental market in our town. That surely creates a tremendous opportunity for
investors looking to buy properties to short term rent. In some situations, I think I can make a compelling case for properties that can generate about 8.5% annual yield in
short term rentals after expenses. Believing there is upside appreciation in the property (that real estate prices will appreciate in a few years) and the depreciation
component, creates a fantastic investment opportunity for these specific properties.

Call or email me and I will tell you more.

(
Crested Butte real estate agent Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent at Red Lady Realty in Crested Butte, CO)
MARKET FOR VACATION HOMES IS ON THE RISE - WSJ
MONDAY, 10 JANUARY 2011 07:33
Today's Wall Street Journal article is about Vacation Home sales picking up due to lower prices and deeper pockets due to the stock market recovery. Our home prices in Crested
Butte, CO are still quite low and offer great bargains. I don't think this situation will continue into July. Happy reading.

By S. MITRA KALITA

Sales in many vacation communities across the U.S. soared last year to levels not seen since boom times, driven by deep discounts, cash purchases and buyers' rising stock
portfolios.

On Mercer Island, Wash., waterfront sales nearly tripled in 2010, compared with a year earlier, reaching par with 2006 volume there. Sales on Hilton Head Island, S.C., rose 14%
for the year. Palm Beach, Fla., experienced a 40% annual increase and a 54% increase in homes under contract, indicating an especially strong fourth quarter. Palm Beach sales
volume now is comparable to its 2007 peak. These figures were gleaned by brokers in each locale.

"The proverbial train has left the station," said Ned Monell, an agent with Sotheby's International Realty in Palm Beach. "We haven't felt energy like this in a long time. Buyers
sense that they've been on the sidelines long enough."

The question now is whether the momentum will last. The strength of second-home sales paints a stark contrast to the overall housing market, which is expected to worsen in
2011.

Existing-home sales in November rose 5.6% on an annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors, a trade and lobbying group. Last month, the Case-Shiller
housing index of 20 cities showed prices across the U.S. fell in October, and most analysts predict another 5% to 10% slide in the coming year.
Yesterday we in Crested Butte got the news that Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. has terminated its option agreement with US
Energy Corp. to mine Mt. Emmons (aka Red Lady) for molybdenum. I think most locals were very excited about this news, as
although it would potentially increase local jobs, the threat to our outdoor lifestyle would be threatened too severely by a mining
operation so close to town. One of my main concerns had been the effect the mine could potentially have on our fragile ecosystem
and more specifically, our water supply.

My understanding of the situation is that although US Energy (a relavtively small company) could still partner with a larger entity and
a mine could one day again be a threat to Crested Butte, the likelihood of this happening is greatly diminished. One of the reasons
for my being skeptical about another operation beginning, is the reality of 3 failed attampts to get this highly controversial mining
operation welcomed by townspeople. Seeing other mining operations as one drives through Colorado makes one appreciate the lack
of one in our part of the state. I just drove through Somerset yesterday, the site of a large coal mining operation, just over Kebler
Pass from Crested Butte. Watching the endless number of train cars waiting to be filled with coal, and then snaking through
Glenwood Canyon on their way out to provide electricity elsewhere is somewhat awe inspiring. Viewing the enormous piles of coal
waiting to be loaded on more train cars makes one wonder about the endless transportation of similar amounts of molybdenum
through our little town, and how that would have effected our lives. It's nice to now not have to consider these things, and just be
happy that Crested Butte will retain its status as one of the most beautiful parts of Colorado without a mine.

As a real estate agent, I think the news is especially good. If people were hesitating to buy property in and around Crested Butte due
to the threat of a mine, that is no longer an issue. We won't be having exploratory drilling accompanied by the constant whir of
helicopter rotors this summer, or now hopefully, any other summer. Our water supply, although never officially threatened, will not
be actually threatened. And as the Wildflower Capital of Colorado, we will keep that status - never becoming the Molybdenum
Tailings capital of Colorado.

(
Crested Butte real estate agent Diane Aronovic is a former Managing Director at Bank of America Securities, and a real estate agent
at Red Lady Realty in Crested Butte, CO)